Following back to back overtime losses, Duke now faces an uphill battle to make the NCAA Tournament. A loss in this game would mean Duke’s only hope of going dancing would be to win the ACC Tournament. With a win, Duke would still have plenty of work to do in the ACC Tourney, but may not have to win the whole thing. Tournament aspirations aside, avoiding getting swept by UNC is plenty of cause for this team to be highly motivated to win this game.
UNC is safely in the tournament field, but will be looking to make one last push to improve their seeding. Currently projected as a 10 seed, UNC will want to improve their positioning for the NCAA Tournament. UNC has had a wild last week and half. They fell to sub-.500 Marquette at home, then followed that up with a win over #11 Florida State. On Monday, they lost to Syracuse. UNC has been an unpredictable team of late.
What to watch for:
Caleb Love
Duke must do a much better job defending Caleb Love in the rematch. The Blue Devils allowed Love to score a season high 25 points in the first Duke-UNC game of the season. Since the Duke game, Love is shooting just 14/54 (25.9%) from the field. Duke cannot let Love have a bounce back game in this one.
Which UNC team shows up?
Will Duke be getting the team that lost to Marquette, or the team that beat Florida State? UNC has been an inconsistent team all season, and their inconsistently has been taken to new heights over the last three games.
Mark Williams
Mark Williams only played 14 minutes in the first matchup between these two teams this season. That game was one month ago, and Williams has rapidly improved since. Williams will likely see more playing time in this game, how much more will be interesting to monitor.
Matthew Hurt
Mark Williams is not the only member of Duke’s front court that is a key to this game. Matthew Hurt really struggled to stay on the floor in the first matchup against UNC, fouling out in just 21 minutes of play. Hurt had a tough time on the defensive end against UNC’s massive front line. Williams playing more and taking on more of the defensive responsibility against UNC’s front court may help prevent Hurt from picking up so many fouls in the rematch. Hurt’s season low of seven points came against UNC, and Duke will need a typical Hurt performance to have a chance in this game.
DJ Steward and Jeremy Roach
Ideally, Duke gets a strong game from both of these players. At the very least, one must have a productive game for Duke in this one. Both have struggled mightily over the last two games, and Duke has to have some type of back court production from these players to win.