Next year’s Duke team will benefit from four key pieces returning to the mix: Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, Joey Baker, and Jordan Goldwire. As leaders on the team in terms of experience, each will be replied upon more next season compared to last season.
None of the returning players were asked to take on much of a scoring load last season. With Vernon Carey and Tre Jones in the mix, being a primary scorer was not a necessary role for any of these returnees. Matthew Hurt finished highest of the returning four in points per game, finishing 4th on the 2019-2020 team behind Veron, Tre, and Cassius. There is room for any of the four to take a noticeable leap in scoring next season. All averaged single digits in scoring per game and with added experience and potential increases in playing time, each has an opportunity to take on more of the load offensively.
Matthew Hurt has the best overall scoring ability of the bunch and is the favorite to take the largest leap in scoring per game. Averaging 9.7 points per game last season, Hurt did this on impressive percentages of 49%/39%/74%. He averaged 3.5 three point attempts and just 1.7 free throw attempts per game and it is very likely both of these numbers go up. Gaining strength should allow him to be more physical and draw more free throw attempts. And being the terrific shooter he is, increasing his three point attempts from 3.5 to 5.0 attempts per game or more could lead to a large uptick in scoring. He only made 3 or more threes in 6 games last season, look for that number to dramatically increase. His offensive ability is evident and with added strength, it is reasonable to believe he is capable of averaging north of 15 points per game.
Moore has a chance to take a large leap as well, but he will likely be asked to be a jack of all trades. Moore’s game has very high all around potential. He is a very good passer and will likely be asked to take on a distributor role as well. He will contribute in numerous ways on both sides of the court next season. While he was excellent from the free throw line at 80.6%, he was very inefficient from the floor. As the game slows down for him, there is reason to believe his efficiency improves, resulting in more points per game. At just 21.1% from beyond the arc, his excellent free throw shooting suggests the chance to significantly increase his three point percentage is there. Moore averaged 7.4 points per game as a Freshman and it can be realistically expected he will increase that number by at least five points per contest.
Joey Baker averaged just 5.0 points per game last season but could see an increase in playing time next season. If this increase in playing time comes to fruition, he has the offensive potential to have the most significant improvement in offensive output. It did not happen often, but Baker had games where he was very effective last season. It happened against lesser competition, but he had games of 16 points vs Winthrop and 22 points against Wofford. He has also shown the ability to score in bursts. Against Boston College, Duke was struggling mightily on offense, totaling just 36 points as a team with under 12 minutes to play in the game. Baker checked in and scored eight points in under four minutes and completely energized the team on the offensive end of the floor. The offensive potential is evident, he will just need to prove he can be more consistent. He will also need to be better on the defensive end. If he improves on the defensive end, this will lead to more playing time and more opportunity to make his presence felt on that end of the floor.
Jordan Goldwire has vastly improved every year he has been at Duke. He only averaged 4.7 ppg last season, but the stat sheet does not properly depict how much he improved offensively. He added elements to his offensive game he did not possess in previous years. Goldwire transformed from a complete liability from beyond the three point line into a respectable shooter, increasing his 3PT percentage 12.0% all the way up to 35.4%. His per game scoring average increased from 0.9 ppg to 4.7ppg. There is no reason to doubt Goldwire is capable of making another statistical leap similar to the leap he displayed last year. As a Senior that Coach K completely trusts, Goldwire could see a lot of time on the court next season, offering more opportunity for Goldwire to make another upswing in scoring.
Overall, Hurt is the favorite to have the most significant scoring increase. He has the most natural offensive scoring ability of any of the returning players and will also likely be asked to take on more of a scoring role than any of the other returnees. With that said, it would not surprise to see any of the returnees take a notable leap in terms of scoring production. It will be very interesting to see how it all unfolds next season.