The last remaining Duke target, Patrick Baldwin, announced his decision to play for his father at Wisconsin-Milwaukee this week. With Baldwin electing to play elsewhere, Duke’s 2021-2022 roster appears to be set. The season is still months away, but it is never to early to speculate on the potential rotation.
Starting five prediction:
PG: Jeremy Roach
SG: Trevor Keels
SF: AJ Griffin
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams
This is a starting five that Duke can certainly feel very excited about. This group possesses a surplus of versatility and there is enough shooting to allow for ideal floor spacing. If this starting five comes to fruition, it will be an extremely young group (three Freshmen and two Sophomores), but that is nothing new in the One and Done Era. While the starting five may be young, it possesses plenty of talent, and Duke will have key veterans to bring off the bench and play an important role.
Bench prediction:
6th: Wendell Moore
7th: Theo John
8th: Joey Baker
9th: Jaylen Blakes
Wendell Moore is the hardest to predict on the team in terms of if he will start or be brought off the bench to begin the season. It would not surprise to see Moore begin the season as a starter, which would most likely move Trevor Keels to the bench. Regardless of if he starts or comes off the bench, the Junior will see a sizeable amount of playing time next season.
It is safe to assume all three of Theo John, Joey Baker, and Jaylen Blakes will come off the bench for Duke this season. It is hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three crack the starting lineup at any point.
Minutes Distribution:
Banchero: 33
Griffin: 30
Williams: 27
Roach: 27
Keels: 26
Moore: 26
John: 15
Baker: 12
Blakes: 4
Paolo Banchero projects to be the best player on the team next season and has a chance to be one of the best in the country. He will most likely lead the team in minutes. If Griffin is second on the team in minutes, it would mark the first time in the One and Done Era that the top two leaders in minutes per game were both Freshmen. However, with the way this team is constructed, there is a real chance these two lead the team in minutes next season.
There are four other players who likely get what essentially amounts to starter minutes: Mark Williams, Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, and Trevor Keels. Duke will heavily rely on the top six in their rotation next season.
Theo John and Joey Baker, and to a lesser degree, Jaylen Blakes, will round out the rest of the rotation. Duke struck gold in the transfer market with Marquette transfer Theo John and it is safe to assume the big man will command at least 15 minutes per game next season. Joey Baker has averaged 11.8 minutes per game over the last two seasons and will likely end up around that same number on next year’s team. Jaylen Blakes looks to be the 9th man in the rotation and there will likely be numerous games where he does not play.
This will likely change to an extent by the time the season rolls around, but these are my predictions in early May. The roster is a very talented one and Duke will be able to employ a rotation capable of winning a National Championship.