Duke is heading into the 2021-2022 season with a roster to be very excited about. This team is equipped with a number of players capable of producing in different areas. Early in the off-season, below are predictions for how the upcoming season will play out from a statistical perspective.
Scoring leaders:
- Paolo Banchero: 20.2 ppg
- AJ Griffin: 15.2 ppg
- Mark Wiliams: 14.1 ppg
Paolo Banchero is already a professional caliber basketball player. He could walk into the NBA tomorrow and produce at a steady rate. There is a legitimate chance Banchero will join Marvin Bagley, RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson as the only Duke Freshmen to average at least 20.0 ppg in the One and Done Era. Banchero leading the team in scoring is a safe bet, but it becomes more difficult to predict who will be next in the pecking order.
AJ Griffin has become somewhat of a forgotten man after not playing in over a year due to injury, but there is no question he will be ready to score at a consistent clip at the college level. Mark Williams’ offensive game improved rapidly as last season progressed, culminating in him averaging 16.6 points per game over the final six games of his Freshman season. He will certainly continue to be an offensive threat as a Sophomore.
Rebounding leaders:
- Mark Williams: 9.7 rpg
- Paolo Banchero: 9.1 rpg
- Wendell Moore: 4.9 rpg
Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero are going to gobble up a ton of rebounds. In the 2017-2018 season, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter pulled down a combined 20.2 rebounds per game. The Williams/Banchero front court duo could produce a similar number together. Wendell Moore has been a solid rebounder for Duke throughout his first two seasons, averaging 4.5 rebounds per game in his first two years at Duke. A slight increase to that number for Moore is a reasonable expectation to have.
Assists leaders:
- Jeremy Roach: 4.5 apg
- Wendell Moore: 3.9 apg
- Paolo Banchero: 2.5 apg
Jeremy Roach, likely to see a significant amount of minutes at the point guard position, is the most likely candidate to lead Duke in assists next season. After averaging 2.8 apg as a Freshman, a patented Duke Sophomore leap from Roach could put him in the 4+ assists per game range. Wendell Moore increased his assists per game from 1.9 to 2.7 from his Freshman to Sophomore year, and another increase can be expected this season.
Paolo Banchero being third on the team in assists might surprise, but the high school sensation is a gifted passer. He possesses the rare gift of seeing plays before they happen. With his passing chops, there is a good chance Banchero averages more assists than some of the guards on the team. Griffin and Keels are much more wired to score, and Jaylen Blakes will not play enough to be among the team leaders. Banchero will also likely be doubled quite a bit, and accumulate assists as a result.
Steals leaders:
- AJ Grffin: 1.3 spg
- Jeremy Roach: 1.2 spg
- Paolo Banchero: 0.9 spg
This Duke team does not have a pick pocket master such as a Tre Jones or Jordan Goldwire. As a result, there likely won’t be any individual eye popping numbers in the steals category. The steals will be spread out as a team.
Block leaders:
- Mark Williams: 2.2 bpg
- Theo John: 1.2 bpg
- Paolo Banchero: 0.8 bpg
Mark Williams proved last season that he has elite shot blocking potential. Williams leading the team in shot blocking is an easy prediction, and he could be among the leaders in the ACC in this department.
Theo John has proven to be an excellent shot blocker at Marquette. Over the last three seasons, John has averaged 1.8 blocks per game in 22.3 minutes per game, proving he does not need an exceptionally high amount of minutes to produce a high number of blocks. Theo John will likely receive about 15 minutes per game, and as a shot blocking specialist, that is enough for John to be north of 1.0 blocks per game.
Field goal percentage:
- Mark Williams: 62.5%
- Theo John: 59.8 %
- Paolo Banchero: 53.7%
Mark Williams has proven he can knock down the mid range jump shot, going three for three on such attempts last season. Even with that capability, the bulk of his attempts will come from around the basket, which will result in a very high field goal percentage. Theo John has never shot worse than 54.9% from the field in a season in his college career and his efficiency should continue next season. Paolo Banchero will likely take more field goal attempts than any player on the team which will make it more difficult to maintain a higher percentage, but is such a talented scorer that he will be efficient regardless.
Three point percentage:
- Trevor Keels: 39.1 %
- AJ Griffin: 38.2 %
- Joey Baker: 36.0 %
Incoming Freshmen Trevor Keels and AJ Griffin will provide a much needed boost for Duke in the three point shooting department. Both players shoot the ball well from deep. After a Sophomore season where Joey Baker shot an impressive 39.4% from three, he fell to just 31.4% last season. As a Senior, he will likely fall somewhere in the middle of those two percentages.
Free throw percentage:
- Wendell Moore: 84.7 %
- Paolo Banchero: 78.7 %
- Trevor Keels: 77.3 %
If there is one area Wendell Moore has been consistent while at Duke, it is free throw shooting. After shooting 80.6% from the free throw line as a Freshman, Moore followed that up by shooting 84.8% last season. Moore should once again prove reliable from the free throw line. Banchero and Keels project to be good free throw shooters next season as well, and each could easily end up with a percentage in the high seventies or better.
Minutes per game:
- Paolo Banchero: 33
- AJ Griffin: 30
- Williams/Roach (tie) 27
Duke has a very talented roster which will make for an exciting season. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the leaders in each statistical category.